2023 Fall Housing Market Forecast
Fall 2023 Housing Market Forecast
As we put Labor Day behind us, the Fall 2023 Housing Market is just kicking off. While there is still a scarcity of supply in the Mid Atlantic, the drop in inventory we usually experience in August didn’t happen.
As noted by economist Lisa Sturtevant PhD, “In typical years, there is a significant decrease in listings throughout August, but this year, listings have stayed far steadier. Labor Day weekend did not slow down listing activity with the number of new listings up 2.6% from a week earlier.”
Less Inventory, Fewer Buyers
From our office, it felt like we had more listings to recommend to prospective buyers. A mix of stale (overpriced) listings that had languished over the summer and some new contenders arriving ahead of schedule.
Speaking of the summer, it’s worth noting that we had some success getting offers accepted with home sale contingencies. Another way to say that is “offers to purchase homes contingent upon the sale of the buyer’s current residence.” These buyers were previously being outbid by all cash non-contingent offers. There is less inventory but there are also fewer buyers.
Why are there fewer buyers? Two reasons.
The first reason is that people are choosing to stay in their current homes instead of selling because their current residence may have a low interest rate that won’t be available elsewhere. It’s a phenomenon called “golden handcuffs,” first noted last year in the Wall Street Journal.
The second reason is that many first-time home buyers are sidelined. The higher interest rates push affordable housing out of reach. Adding to that challenge is many first-time home buyers are also juggling student debt. If this sounds like you, please note that you are far from alone.
Baltimore County Housing Market
It’s still a good time to sell, especially in Baltimore County.
The average sale price is up nearly 6%. Why?
The number of homes for sale has dropped over 44% since 2022.
That statistic alone may put a lot of Realtors out of work. A thinning of the herd isn’t the worst thing in an industry where some professionals are significantly more qualified than others.
Baltimore City Housing Market
In Baltimore City, the number of homes for sale has dropped over 39% since 2022, yet the average sales price is down 2.4%.
So, while a seller in the County might experience multiple offers, a seller in the City may receive 1 or 2 good offers.
It’s always good to keep in mind that one good offer is all you need. It just may feel lackluster compared to the swarm of offers you might have experienced selling in 2021 or 2022.
Two neighborhoods where we work frequently, Roland Park and Mount Washington, have some of the strongest trends.
The median sale prices are increasing in Roland Park by over 5% and median sale prices in Mount Washington are increasing over 20%. The median sales price in Mount Washington in Q2 of 2023 was $450,000.
These neighborhoods are popular both with our real estate clients and our construction clients. We’ve got large scale renovations going in both locations. Source: BRIGHT MLS Industry Watch Q2-2023.
Navigating the Fall 2023 Housing Market With Guerilla
More than ever, we want to encourage our clients to meet with us early and to meet with us often. In a challenging market, you may need extra time to formulate and execute a winning strategy.
We’ve got clients working with us now with the goal of purchasing in 2024 or 2025. That could be anything from a first-time purchase, a need to trade up to a larger property, or a plan to downsize from a current residence.
In addition to residential clients, we’re a valuable resource for investors, as our own real estate investments are a core part of our success. Our agents meet with investors building portfolios, first time developers, and commercial clients.
Guerilla is also a clutch resource for clients debating if it makes more sense to sell or renovate. The calculations you need can be found here, from current market to after renovated values. It's a lot like that show “love it or list it” – and we’ve been doing it for years.
Guerilla Realty is an independent brokerage established in 2014 and a proud member of the National Association of Realtors.
This Fall 2023 forecast is regional, and that means that individual markets may vary.
When you’re ready to make some moves, we’re ready to make them happen. Equal housing opportunity.